B.C. ‘cautiously optimistic’ about COVID-19 forecast, but warns hospitals could still be overwhelmed

“I am recognizing we are still having ongoing transmission in our community. We are doing a lot of testing and we are seeing cases arise. It is the next two weeks where we would like to see flattening and then decreasing after that.”

Henry says this is a model, not a projection.

To prepare for possible scenarios, the province has looked at spread in China’s Hubei province, northern Italy, and South Korea.

British Columbia has more than 1,200 ventilators available and an additional 120 have been ordered since inventory was done on March 5.

According to the province, 348 ventilators are currently available in B.C.’s 17 large hospitals, which have been designated as COVID-19 hospitals.

“What we are trying to do is establish our system so everyone gets the best chance to prevent death,” Henry said.

According to the province, transmission rates in South Korea have been lower than those in B.C. Using that scenario, the province has enough room in intensive care units and enough ventilators.

If B.C. were to experience a Hubei-style outbreak, there would be more patients in intensive care in the large hospitals than there are beds, but there would be enough ventilators.

An outbreak similar to the one in northern Italy has B.C. health officials worried.

In that scenario, there would be a shortage of 182 ICU beds in the big hospitals, requiring the province to use additional auxiliary space outside the ICU.

The province would be required to use all sites to meet bed demand and implement increased transportation of patients between sites.

“All of this buys us time … for a vaccine,” Henry said.

“Our outbreak will be different. It will be ours. It will be unique from all of these. But this gives us the way to focus the attention and understand where we may be and get people to think about how we might do this.”

B.C. is the first province in the country to release its modelling information on COVID-19.

B.C. ‘cautiously optimistic’ about COVID-19 forecast, but warns hospitals could still be overwhelmed

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