UPDATE: 2 new cases of COVID-19 in Northern Health, 3 deaths in B.C.

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• Vancouver Coastal Health: 845
• Fraser Health: 1027
• Vancouver Island Health: 124
• Interior Health: 177
• Northern Health: 51

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Three deaths were reported today, all in longterm health care facilities brining B.C.’s total of deaths is now at 117.

New modelling was unveiled at the COVID-19 update by Provincial Health Officer, Dr. Bonnie Henry and Health Minister Adrian Dix.

The modelling this time looked at potential scenarios going forward into the next several weeks and months. Henry said that since the implementation of social distancing measures we have decreased our social connections down to around 30 per cent.

The graphs above depict three different situations moving forward, with the graph on the far left showing an ideal situation, where we see an increase in contacts of up to 40 per cent—ten per cent more than what it is estimated we are at now—with a consistent number of cases.

The middle graph shows a 60 per cent increase in contacts, which would result in a manageable amount of new COVID-19 cases.

As for the third, Henry said this would be like taking our social contact back to how things were in December and would potentially stress B.C.’s health care system.

Henry says we need to find the “sweet spot” when it comes to how much we continue to social distance in order to still have control of the virus.

“There’s so much that we don’t yet know about this virus.”—Dr. Bonnie Henry, B.C.’s Provincial Health Officer

Henry says that as a province we have to find the right balance of interaction—going forward— in order to protect lives by suppressing transmission to the lowest rates possible for at-risk populations, ensuring that the health system has capacity to offer quality care to both COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients, meeting the physical and mental health challenges that come with restricting social interaction, and rebuilding a resilient economy while providing supports for people to safely return to work.

Henry went on to say that the rest of the year will be “unusual” due to the pandemic, and that as of right now it is not known if a resurgence will occur come the fall, but said they must begin preparing now for that possibility.

Premier John Horgan, is expected to join provincial health officials on Wednesday to announce B.C.’s, Going Forward plan.