Modelling expert says possibly 8-10 additional cases for every single test-positive case

Colijn works out of Simon Fraser University where her work is at the interface of mathematics and the epidemiology and evolution of pathogens. She holds a Canada 150 Research Chair in Mathematics for Evolution, Infection and Public Health.

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The professor says based on her modelling, contact tracing is going to play a critical role in tracking down additional cases that may not necessarily know that they’ve been exposed in order to limit further spread.

“For Northern Health, it’s a really tough position because with such low prevalence you just want to do your normal activities and not restrict everyone’s activities so much for very few cases. On the flip side, what that means is that if cases do come from elsewhere it could spread like wildfire.”

Colijn does admit the size of Northern Health and remoteness of many of its communities should act as a way to contain the virus, however, one single case still poses risk.

“If that one individual doesn’t know they’re ill, goes to a crowded bar or restaurant, is in close proximity to other people over an extended time, then it could create 20 new infections,” explained Colijn, adding while situations like that haven’t quite happened yet but admits the risk is very much present that those types of interactions begin to happen now.

Colijn states that because British Columbians are beginning to travel more within the province and businesses have re-opened, cases are beginning to rise.

“The risk is that because we’re travelling and that we have re-opened a lot of activities, I think the signs are that the activities we’ve re-opened where the cases are have resulted in more cases. That means when those people move, and the virus moves with people, we can’t have fun tourism activities without risk. We have to manage that risk. That one case may have a lot of damage depending on what they do and how much the contract tracing is able to find.”

As of her Monday briefing, Dr Henry indicates British Columbians are going about social contact at about 65 to 75 per cent of their pre-COVID activities. With the beginning of an upwards tick in new cases, Dr Henry is concerned but does say it’s not forgone that we will see a rapid increase, adding proper caution and social distancing is still very much needed, now more than ever.