By Adam Berls

drought conditions

Rain much needed but not enough to alleviate drought conditions

Sep 24, 2024 | 5:16 PM

PRINCE GEORGE — Now that fall has arrived, the weather has followed suit, with rain and cooler temperatures blanketing much of the region over the last few days. Even with the rain received, it is nowhere close to what is needed to alleviate drought conditions.

Severe drought conditions still exist in the region, with the Upper Fraser West basin sitting at drought level 5, the highest and most severe classification. Drought level 5 means that adverse impacts to socio-economic or ecosystem values are almost certain. August was a notably dry month with only seven millimeters (mm) of precipitation being recorded.

The monthly average for precipitation in the month of September is around 40mm, and so far Prince George is on track to hit the average, with 30mm falling so far.

Dr. Stephen Déry, Professor of Environmental Science at UNBC, says that reservoirs are still very, very low and we need far more precipitation to make up for the deficits that have been incurred. Déry has calculated that over the last two and a half years, we have a precipitation deficit of 450mm.

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The El Nino weather pattern, is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warming of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. That pattern has now dissipated, meaning we are likely to experience La Nina conditions starting this fall. La Nina brings cooler temperatures and above average precipitation. Déry says that there is a 71% chance that we will enter into La Nina this fall and a higher chance that it will occur during the winter time.

A higher snowpack leading into the spring can help replenish reservoirs, leaving the province better off heading into the spring and summer in 2025.

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X: @AdamBerls

Email: Adam.Berls@pattisonmedia.com