Solid April GDP rebound suggests Canada is not in a recession: economists

StatCan said real estate agents’ and brokers’ offices were busier in April, marking the subsector’s first growth since August 2025 on the back of stronger home sales in the Greater Toronto Area.

The agency’s early estimates have growth moderating but continuing with an increase of 0.1 per cent in May thanks to growth in finance, insurance, real estate and leasing.

An economic contraction in March dragged real GDP by expenditure into barely negative territory for the first quarter of the year. That sparked rumblings of a recession after two consecutive quarterly contractions, though most economists argued that label was premature.

Multiple economists weighing in Tuesday morning said the April data reinforced that Canada is not in a recession.

BMO chief economist Doug Porter said calls of a recession based on the previous two quarters were a “false alarm.” The broad-based nature of the rebound is also encouraging, but Porter did not declare that a recovery was in full swing.

April’s rebound “is clearly a correction from the prolonged winter lull and is unlikely to persist,” he said in a note to clients. The more modest May gains are also a reminder the economy is still growing below potential.

“April’s GDP rebound shows the economy is still chugging along, even if growth remains sluggish and not especially strong,” said Andrew DiCapua, principal economist for the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, in a media statement.

A separate release from StatCan on Tuesday detailing energy statistics in the economy showed exports of refined petroleum surged 69.7 per cent year-over-year as the war in Iran pushed prices higher globally.

Production of crude oil and equivalents rose 4.2 per cent in April, which StatCan said was the 11th consecutive month of year-over-year increases.

Oilsands extraction contributed the most to the stronger activity in April, though offshore production from Newfoundland and Labrador also hit its highest levels since March 2020.

Crude oil exports to the United States by pipeline rose 8.8 per cent annually in April, while exports to Asia and Europe jumped 46.6 per cent. The agency pointed to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as hampering crude oil supply from the region.

The April and early May GDP estimate put the second quarter of the year on track for growth topping two per cent annualized, Porter said, which would overshoot the Bank of Canada’s expectation for 1.5 per cent growth in the quarter.

The central bank is set for its next interest rate decision on July 15.

Thomas Ryan, North America economist with Capital Economics, said in a note the second quarter of the year will also get a lift from activity related to the FIFA World Cup.

Despite signs of second-quarter momentum, Ryan said the first-quarter miss means growth over the first half of 2026 could still fall short of the Bank of Canada’s expectations.

“While this should put a firm end to any debate about whether the economy is in recession, growth over the first half of the year is still set to average considerably below the Bank of Canada’s forecast, supporting our view that rate hikes are a long way off,” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 30, 2026.

Craig Lord, The Canadian Press

by The Canadian Press

Solid April GDP rebound suggests Canada is not in a recession: economists

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