If Alberta leaves Canada, it will need up to $170B and 70,000 civil servants: report

“It completely changes how public services, trade, taxes and laws work.”

Premier Danielle Smith’s government commissioned the report in June to give Albertans a better understanding of the costs of separation.

Finance Minister Jason Nixon said the prohibitive costs and logistics outlined in the report illustrate why the province is urging residents vote to stay in Canada in the upcoming Oct. 19 referendum.

“Alberta’s government has always been clear: we support a strong and sovereign Alberta within a united Canada,” Nixon said in a statement.

“That is what we will continue fighting for each day.”

The report says separating means managing a lot moving parts, negotiating with First Nations, and other countries. The challenge, it states, is compounded by the fact Alberta is a landlocked jurisdiction with an economy reliant on exports.

“Even under favourable conditions, achieving a fully functioning new country could take several years and entail significant costs,” says the report.

“If any of these relationships or negotiations prove difficult, separation could take longer and impose greater economic costs.”

It adds that the shock to Alberta economy will be profound, with lower output and an annual budget deficit of more than $30 billion.

Albertans are to go to the polls next month to vote on whether they want to remain in Canada or hold a second, binding referendum on leaving the country.

The referendum was called earlier this year by Smith.

Smith has said years of federal government interference has stymied Alberta’s economy and frustrated residents to the point that some see separation as a credible alternative that deserves to be addressed in a referendum.

Polls have consistently suggested a large majority of Albertans want to stay in Canada.

Smith’s critics say this underscores their contention that she is both arsonist and firefighter by calling a vote to break up Canada while championing the cause to stay united.

They say she has called the vote not to address smouldering resentments toward Ottawa, but simply to appease hardline separatists in her United Conservative Party.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2026.

Jack Farrell, The Canadian Press

by The Canadian Press

If Alberta leaves Canada, it will need up to $170B and 70,000 civil servants: report

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