The power of anger over energy pricing
Elections are often considered to be referendums on the economy. When the economy is performing well, incumbent governments are supposed to benefit from a contented electorate. That’s not what happened in Ontario.
By most measures, the Ontario economy is doing just fine. Unemployment, one of the most important indicators for voters, is the lowest it’s been in several decades. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth is in the two per cent range – decent, if not spectacular. Housing starts and other measures of consumer spending seem reasonably strong as well.
Nevertheless, Ontario’s long-governing Liberals were just shown the door in spectacular fashion. Voters were willing to look past the Liberals’ ugly scandals in previous elections for the sake of predictability. But when voters looked at the economy this time, they plainly couldn’t get past one aspect of it that was actually in horrible shape: energy affordability.
Despite a fairly favourable economic situation in Premier Kathleen Wynne’s favour, it was her Liberal Party’s epic mismanagement of the electricity file in particular that dominated her opponents’ platforms and captured voters’ minds. Meanwhile, her cap-and-trade system of carbon dioxide taxes was slowly making most other forms of energy needlessly more expensive. In a mid-campaign poll by Ipsos, more than 60 percent of Ontario voters said hydroelectricity prices would have an impact on their vote in the provincial election, with Ford’s Progressive Conservatives as the top choice to fix the problem.