U.S. Presidential Election, tonight, draws spectators

So, if a candidate can be leading in the polls only to face a different outcome at the electoral college, how can voting still be significant?

Chris Beach, Political Science Lecturer at CNC says “I think the simplest way to explain the electoral college is, for almost every state, it’s a winner takes all system.”

He compares the electoral college to the system we have in Canada, where a candidate can win the popular vote but still not win enough seats to form government.

Beach says “you know, believe it or not, the polls weren’t really wrong four years ago. They were within the margin of error.”

He explains that in many cases, Trump won by a small percentage.

How does this year differ from 2016, then?

Beach says “Joe Biden’s lead is considerably more than Hillary Clinton at this stage, and it’s been very steady for many months. So, that’s one difference, his lead is quite a bit larger, anywhere from seven to ten points.”

Given the nature of elections in general, with polls being only one insight into voter behaviour, how confident can we really be that Biden’s lead in the weeks before tonight are any indication of what will happen?

Beach says, “there could be another surprise as there was four years ago. And the x factor might be people that say they’re not voting for Trump in a poll, but actually end up voting for him.”

However, Beach thinks that given the large lead that Biden has over Trump in the polls, this year will be different than 2016.

by Vincent Papequash

U.S. Presidential Election, tonight, draws spectators

What's Trending