Alberta votes in referendum to stay in Canada. A timeline on how we got here

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2019 — The anti-Ottawa mood ramps up as the United Conservative Party under Jason Kenney wins power in Alberta, capitalizing on discontent over federal rules and policies deemed to impair Alberta’s ability to create wealth, particularly in oil and gas. Premier Kenney fights for more independence from Ottawa but remains a staunch advocate for the province staying in Confederation.

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2022-23 — Kenney is replaced by Danielle Smith, who wins government in the 2023 election on a platform of further asserting independence from Ottawa. Unlike Kenney, Premier Smith, while stressing her preference for a “sovereign Alberta within a united Canada,” refuses to characterize separatists as fringe extremists, saying they have valid grievances that deserve to be aired.

April 28, 2025 — Mark Carney and the Liberals defeat the federal Conservatives to win a minority government.

May 5, 2025 — Smith announces a panel to discuss Alberta’s future in Canada. She says her government won’t itself put separation on a ballot but would honour a successful citizen petition seeking such a vote. At the same time, her government takes steps to eventually pass rules to lower thresholds for citizen-led petitions.

June 2025 — Former Alberta Progressive Conservative deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk launches a “Forever Canadian” petition to affirm the province stays in Canada. It eventually collects more than 400,000 names — enough to validate the petition. But by the spring of 2026, the petition is tied up in a legislature committee as Smith questions whether Lukaszuk gathered the names for a referendum or as a trigger for a vote among legislature members.

January 2026 — Mitch Sylvestre of the separatist Alberta Prosperity Project is given the green light by election officials to launch a petition asking whether Alberta should leave Canada. Months later, the petition is deemed successful, having gathered about 223,000 signatures.

Feb. 19, 2026 — Smith announces nine referendum questions about immigration and constitutional concerns will be put to Albertans in an Oct. 19 referendum.

May 13, 2026 — An Alberta Court of King’s Bench judge quashes the separatist petition, ruling Smith’s government didn’t properly consult First Nations as required in the Constitution. Smith later promises to challenge the ruling, and it remains in legal limbo.

May 21, 2026 — Smith announces a 10th referendum question asking whether Alberta should stay in Canada or hold a binding vote on separation. Smith cites the legal uncertainty of the court decision on the separatist petition as the driving force, saying it unduly deprives thousands of Albertans of having a say. Smith later cites Lukaszuk’s petition, too, as a reason. She says both show hundreds of thousands of Albertans want the issue decided.

Sept. 10, 2026 — The Alberta government launches a $4-million advertising campaign for the referendum and urges citizens to vote to stay in Canada. The move comes as polls suggest a broad majority of Albertans want to stay.

Sept. 14, 2026 — Smith’s UCP loses a byelection to the Opposition NDP in their conservative stronghold of Calgary Shaw. Critics across the political spectrum say the referendum was a factor in punishing Smith’s UCP. Her office says the party lost due to right-centre vote splitting.

Sept. 16, 2026 — Smith’s government publishes a report it commissioned from the University of Calgary to determine what fiscal challenges and benefits an independent Alberta could see. It estimates an initial five-year price tag of $50 billion to $170 billion, noting that figures could swing sharply depending on factors outside Alberta’s control.

Oct. 16, 2026 — Carney wraps up a two-day barnstorming tour of Alberta, urging people to vote to stay in Canada. Carney and Smith sing O Canada, tap a keg and have a beer at a Red Deer brewery at a pro-Canada event.

Oct. 17, 2026 — Advance voting closes. Elections Alberta reports 1.3 million Albertans — about 43 per cent of eligible voters — have already cast a ballot.

Oct. 19, 2026 — Albertans vote by a wide margin to stay in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 19, 2026.

The Canadian Press