Quiet start to wildfire season masks ongoing fire risk

The numbers highlight a significant departure from recent years. Winsor noted that the 10-year average for this point in the season is approximately 136 fires. Burned area totals are also substantially lower than normal.

“So the 10-year average is usually we’re at about 136 fires to date. In terms of hectares, that usually looks about 840,000 hectares. We’re only about 475. So again, a very big difference there,” she said.

Despite the encouraging statistics, the season has not been as wet as many people might think. Dr. Stephen Déry, a professor of environmental science at the University of Northern British Columbia, says parts of the region have actually experienced below-normal precipitation levels throughout the spring and early summer.

“For instance, from April till June in Prince George at the airport, we recorded 53 per cent of the normal precipitation. And for parts of the Upper Nechako watershed, we had 48 per cent of the usual precipitation from spring until early summer,” Déry said.

However, he says several factors have prevented those drier conditions from translating into widespread wildfire activity.

“It has actually been quite dry in our region, but thankfully we’ve had a lot of cloud cover. We had showers in Prince George. We had about 50 millimetres of precipitation during the month of June, and so that really has managed to suppress any wildfire activity. And of course, wildfires need thunderstorms to trigger the wildfires, and we haven’t had that many thunderstorms this year as well.”

The lack of lightning-caused ignitions has been particularly important. Thunderstorms often play a major role in starting wildfires during the summer months, especially in remote areas where human activity is limited.

While conditions remain favourable today, both wildfire officials and scientists warn the situation could change rapidly.

Winsor says wildfire behavior is often determined by short-term weather patterns rather than seasonal averages.

“Right now we’re kind of in a low to moderate situation in our area. That could change after a week of hot and dry weather. We’re always prepared for things to change, regardless of whether it’s like a tenth of what we usually see.”

As a result, crews continue training and preparation work across the region. With resources currently available, the Prince George Fire Centre has even been able to provide assistance elsewhere.

“We’re using this time to focus on training, project work locally, making sure everyone is ready to go in case fire season does escalate. We do have a number of crews that have been exported to the Northwest Territories to help out there right now,” Winsor said.

Looking ahead, Déry says weather patterns later this summer could become more concerning. Long-range forecasts suggest temperatures may trend warmer and conditions could become drier.

“For the rest of the summer, we are anticipating perhaps warmer, drier conditions. El Niño has developed in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and that usually means dry and warm weather in Prince George and northern British Columbia,” he said.

Although no immediate heat dome or prolonged dry spell is forecast, Déry says several weeks of hot weather combined with increased thunderstorm activity could quickly increase wildfire numbers. For now, northern B.C.’s wildfire picture remains relatively calm. But experts agree that residents should continue monitoring conditions and staying prepared, as wildfire season can change dramatically in a matter of days.

by Nick Dube

Quiet start to wildfire season masks ongoing fire risk

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